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January 6, 2012

As always, it's hard to believe another year has come and gone.  An eventful year in the world and a few interesting observations in our Carmel and Pebble Beach marketplaces as well.  We've attached our year-end market summaries and will share a few salient comments below:

Pebble Beach had a below average year, starting out fairly strong, then softening in the middle but, posting a strong 4th quarter; the higher pending sales number may bode well for the first quarter of 2012.

- There were 2 sales in Pebble Beach above $10M this year, the highest being $11.25M; we were honored to have handled 1 of those top sales.

- A fairly new phenomenon in Pebble was the activity below $1M dollars.  It wasn't that long ago when the lowest prices in Pebble were $1M; this year, 45 properties traded below $1M.  Some real bargains were to be had.             

- We will close 40 deals this year (10 year average of 62); there are 86 properties on the market – clearly, an imbalanced market, particularly in a couple of price points:  worst of the bunch is the $4-8M sector, with 18 properties on the market and only 6 sales this yea

- No matter how it's diced and sliced, the excess supply is going to pose some drag on the Pebble market in 2012.  We would anticipate further discounting as sellers set pricing to entice buyers – the market remains as price sensitive as I've seen in the past 25 years.

Carmel was clearly the bright spot in the marketplace in 2011, enjoying an above average year in virtually all price points:

- Carmel had the highest number of sales since 2005 with the prized Golden Rectangle and Carmel Point areas enjoyed robust demand.

- We had a bit of an odd phenomenon develop this year with demand higher between $3-4M than from $2.5-3.0;  It appeared there was some move-up buying going on, with buyers looking for larger homes on larger lots and willing to pay more for it.

- The $4-8M sector did very well this year with 6 closed sales, after only 2 in 2010; however, the market above 8 was blanked (we did handle the sale of a $10.4 sale on Ribera Road but do not include that area in this data) - there are only 5 properties listed above 8 but no takers.

- Interesting to note that, unlike Pebble, Carmel's 4th quarter pending sales slowed to only 4 – a bit puzzling given the market's tilt toward Carmel throughout the balance of the year.

- Overall, Carmel's inventory levels are much more balanced than Pebble's, with 52 properties on the market and 50 sales this year.  Inventory levels are light-to-average below $3M but are building in the $3-4 sector and the $4-8 range.

All in all, a very solid year in Carmel and decent 4th quarter pending signals in the Pebble Beach market; that said, there are clearly pockets of imbalance that will warrant scrutiny as we move into 2012.

Happy New Year to all.

Mike & Lynn

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December 16, 2011

Well, the annual holiday quiet has begun to settle into our local Carmel and Pebble Beach markets.  Carmel saw only one new sale, an unusual REO sale of a small tear-down in the Golden Rectangle (asking price of $765,000) - good value and drew quick demand.  Pebble Beach continued it's late year charge trying to catch up to Carmel.  We closed the sale of a tear down at $4.5M on one of Pebble's best ocean view sites, offering spectacular views of Carmel Beach, Bay and Point Lobos and there was one other closed sale of a small home in the upper Forest.  There are also two new sales in Pebble, both in the MPCC area and both under $1.5M; the pricing correction seen all year in Pebble in the MPCC area has definitely triggered demand and sales – with the historically low long term cost of capital, which affects this price sector disproportionately, I expect this will continue into 2012 as long as interest rates remain at these levels.  Pebble Beach also saw 7 price reductions as sellers continue to get prices aligned with demand, another story I anticipate being repeated in 2012.  Except perhaps at the very top of our markets, the market remains extremely price sensitive – buyers still do not sense urgency and prices set to trigger motivation and action are more critical than I've seen in my 25 years working these markets.

We genuinely wish you the best of this holiday time of year and every success and happiness in 2012.  We'll be taking a rest next week from the blog posting but will have our year-end recap for you the following week.  

Enjoy the holiday.

Mike & Lynn

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December 11, 2011

Sorry for the delay – having too much fun I guess:

December 2, 2011

The seasonal slow-down has begun to take hold in Carmel, while the bottom of the Pebble Beach market continues to chug along robustly.  Carmel saw one new sale last week, a well-priced (asking $1.495M) bit of a fixer on Carmel Point – the Point has exhibited strong demand all year – a perennial favorite of Carmel buyers; although, inventory has piled up on Bayview, with 6 properties currently listed for sale there – worth keeping an eye on that momentary supply imbalance.

The 3 sales last week in Pebble were all under $1M (a condo at $449, and two houses at $699 and $890).  As mentioned previously, this under $1M sector virtually didn't exist 4 years ago and has  contained a disproportionate % of distressed sales; on a positive note, this sector has definitely responded to the price discounting that has gone on with very active demand – price clearly works in this range.  My crystal ball is forecasting another year or so in this buying window at this range with some genuine value opportunities and then the window closing and the entry level rising  back up towards the $1M threshold.

Christmas is on the horizon with the Carmel Holiday Tree lighting tonight – if you're in town, it's a fun and very pretty event.

-Mike & Lynn

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November 25, 2011

Warm holiday wishes to all.  Lynn, Amanda and I have a lot to give thanks for, including the support of wonderful clients and friends.

A bit of symmetry in the Carmel and Pebble Beach markets last week with two new listings and two new sales in each market.  Carmel continues to display deep strength with another sale in the prime Golden Rectangle ($2.295M) as well as another on Carmel Point ($1.895M) - the market continues to demonstrate great favor with these two locations - for good reason - both offering easy access to the beach and the Golden Rectangle offering a stroll to town.  The ease of maintenance of the smaller lots and homes appears to be getting real traction with the Carmel demographic.

Pebble Beach saw a $8.6M listing go into escrow last week - a high quality larger home with guest house located close to The Lodge. Nice to see demand at this price point as it's been pretty soft most of the year.

Christmas activities starting to surface on the local schedules with The Sunset Center Smuin Ballet Holiday Program, the Pacific Repertory Theater's presentation of 'Every Christmas Story Ever Told'and the Carmel Holiday tree lighting just some of the activities coming up next month.

Again, hope the holiday is treating you well.  Off to Carmel Beach with our daughter and her two King Charles Spaniels along with our two Goldens - does a Dad's heart good:)

And, if you're out and about tomorrow (Saturday), do feel free to stop by to view the Butterfly House on the ocean in Carmel - I'll be there from 3-6:00 and you're welcome to stop in and see this one-of-a-kind property.

-Mike

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November 18, 2011

Well, Thanksgiving is upon us and we wish you all well and a warm holiday week with family and friends next week. 

As to the Carmel and Pebble Beach real estate markets, perhaps somewhat surprisingly, we did see a four new sales last week, as well as 5 closed sales.  The new sales activity was in Pebble, extending the recent counter-trend which had been benefitting Carmel all year; Carmel Realty handled three of the four sales (one with an ask of $2.2,  another at $3.95 and another I put in escrow last night at $4.95 – the final new sale was another value sale at the lower end of the market at $895,000).  Pebble Beach had 3 closed sales, all at the bottom below $928,000 – the encouraging thing at that sector is that demand has been vibrant and is beginning to get ahead of the supply.

Carmel was quiet with new sales but had two more solid sales in the prime Golden Rectangle (at $2.125M and @2.0M) extending what has been an extraordinary display of demand all year long; as mentioned, my instincts tell me there may be more afoot with this expression of interest in smaller houses and lots with convenience, lesser maintenance, etc., and we'll be continuing to track that apparent pattern/trend going into 2012.

Couple of additional items:

                -  If you'll be in town next Saturday we'd like to invite you to stop by and view Carmel's famed Butterfly House. I'll be there from 3-6:00 PM on Saturday, November 26 and you're welcome to bring friends and family.  It is a one-of-a-kind property and house and has undergone a phenomenal renovation.  Fun to see.

                -  In an effort to improve our reach in the international markets we've now posted a brochure on the Butterfly House in both Chinese and Russian on the web site and will be expanding the international outreach on the web in the next few weeks.  We've also retained an interpreter to assist with communications and showings – we'll keep you posted on interest on that front.

                - The biggest event in town this weekend is the Callaway tournament in Pebble Beach. It's a unique tournament with players from the 4 tours all playing together.  It's free and you there are no ropes so you can get close to the players – fun time and very casual.

Again, have a wonderful holiday with family and friends.

Mike & Lynn

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November 11, 2011

As forecasted, the seasonal doldrums appear to have set in.  Only 1 sale in all of Pebble Beach and the prime areas in Carmel last week, a small condo in the Ocean Pines project in Pebble.  My sense is that there is some gas left in the market's tank yet this year and that we will see a number of additional sales in Carmel and Pebble Beach but the trend line will likely be slower for the balance of the year.

There were 3 closed sales in Carmel last week, ranging from our sale of one of my favorite Carmel listings this year, the beautifully designed home at the corner of Camino Real and 13th, at $3.75, and two other sales of well located (one in the Golden Rectangle and one on Carmel Point) both in the $1.5+ range.  Pebble had one closed sale, in that lower price range below $1M (at $700,000) that has seen so much distress activity this year – a lot of good buys being made at these lower price points in Pebble now.

Of perhaps as much interest and relevance, Pebble saw 8 price reductions and only one new listing.  We don't need any more inventory right now and I suspect the price reductions will continue into next year as more sellers come to grips with the reality of a market that has declined 30% in the past several years.

Couple of fun events in town this Veteran's Day weekend:  The Monterey County Wine Country's Best of the Blue is being held tomorrow at the Del Monte Jet Center; David Sedaris is at the Sunset Center and the Morgenstern Piano Trio is in town.

We'd like to end with a brief but sincere note of thanks to all the troops and Veterans out there – your service and sacrifice are deeply appreciated.

-Mike & Lynn

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November 4, 2011

While the holidays are fast approaching the Carmel and Pebble Beach markets continue to show reasonable, although slowing, activity levels.  

Pebble Beach had two properties go into escrow, one with an asking price of $3.95M and one with an ask of $699,000.  The $3.95M house was a traditional, somewhat dated home with ocean views along Padre Lane, one of Pebble's favored locations – priced under $4M with views clearly positioned it as a value, which has also clearly been the driver for sales this year.  The other Pebble story relates to the lower-priced sale.  It wasn't very long ago that the lowest priced property in Pebble was in the $1M range.  At this time there are 46 properties in Pebble priced under $1M, an astonishing number.  This sector of the market has been hammered, falling 30-40%, certainly disproportionately feeling the effects of foreclosures and distress sales.  From the buyer's perspective, the convergence of these prices and the low cost of long term capital presents an historic buying opportunity.  There were 6 new listings in Pebble and two properties formerly on the market came back – adding 8 and selling two clearly going the wrong way.

Carmel saw 3 new sales (ranging from 995,000-$2.795)  and one closed sale ($1.0M); the new sales were all located in the prized south of Ocean Ave location, extending the pattern of truly amazing, robust demand in the best Carmel locations.  The sale was an interesting one on Carmel Point, another highly favored location:  small fixer on Valley View hit the market at $990,000 and immediately sold and closed at $1M.  There's a lot to like about Carmel Point and this provides new support for essentially lot value there.  Carmel also saw a more balanced 3 new listings come to market (prices ranging from $1.289-$2.3M), all three in the Golden Rectangle – I expect these to find favor in the near term as well.  It's pretty clear that, from a liquidity perspective, Carmel is our most liquid area. Demand and velocity are healthy and, as mentioned a few times recently, may be signaling a more profound demographic shift/pattern.

For the foodies, the Big Sur Food and Wine Festival is this weekend.  Should present a pretty unique combination of fabulous food and setting.  It's also been interesting to observe our area expanding it's traditional base of golf, car, and music events with the ever-increasing number of food and wine events – a great addition to local activities

-Mike & Lynn

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October 29, 2011

Well, the counter-trend with Pebble Beach surpassing Carmel continued in the past week.  On an annual basis the stronger-Carmel pattern remains dominant but, Pebble's been digging back in the past few weeks.  Pebble Beach saw 6 properties go into escrow and 3 close (a home along 17 Mile Drive across from the 15th hole closed at $4.575M from it's latest ask of $5.595 and a home near that one along Palmero Way closed at $3M).  Two colleagues in the office also placed a well located home on Stevenson behind the Townhomes into escrow with an ask price of $5.95; nice to see some increased activity going up the food chain.  The  balance of activity in Pebble continued to be at the lower price points – a pattern we've seen all year.

Carmel slowed with only one property going into escrow, a tear down/major fixer very well priced ($990,000) in a strong Carmel Point location; the Point continues to be a coveted location with it's quieter setting and proximity to two beaches.

Overall, our sense is we've begun our seasonal slowing, which generally runs from Thanksgiving until the AT&T tournament, when we usually get a bump in demand.  We'll report back if that historical pattern varies in any meaningful way this year.

The weather's been spectacular, with temps in the mid-70's and powder blue skies.  Best weather of the year.  Carmel is hosting it's annual Halloween parade – very cute event; The Preserve is hosting The Stocker Cup, one of the best Amateur golf tournaments in the country; and, Pebble will be hosting the Callaway golf tournament in two weeks – definitely a fun, low-key event.

-Mike & Lynn

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October 21, 2011

Looking over the data from the past three weeks it's becoming clear that Pebble Beach is catching up to Carmel and has represented the bulk of activity since the start of the fourth quarter, while Carmel's pace has slowed ever-so-slightly. 

In the past week, Pebble Beach had six additional properties go into escrow with list prices ranging from $500K to $2.5M - extending the pattern of lower-priced activity there.   One property of note was listed for $4.65M earlier this year and had several price reductions before being pulled from the market in the beginning of August; it was relisted at the beginning of October for $2.5M and promptly went into escrow only 10 days later.  With 3 closed escrows – two properties under $1M and an older, ocean-view home in the Estates area – and a whopping 14 price reductions, all signals continue to indicate that value–pricing continues to be the essential demand trigger in Pebble Beach.

Meanwhile, location appears to remain the force behind demand in Carmel.  With 1 closed escrow on San Carlos and 1 pending sale on 7^th Avenue between Camino Real and Casanova, properties within the desired walk-to-town/walk-to-water parameters continue to stimulate Buyers in Carmel.

If history proves to be true again, we can expect some overall slowing as we head into the holiday season. Stay tuned.

-Mike & Lynn

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October 14, 2011

Having posted our regular quarterly update last week, I'll touch on the activity over the past two weeks in the Pebble Beach and Carmel markets.

Somewhat bucking the recent trend, Pebble enjoyed greater activity than Carmel in the past two weeks:  6 properties went into escrow and 5 properties closed escrow; we were happy to be a part of those closed sales, having sold a home along the first hole of the Cypress Point golf course at $10M.  Of note, one of our Carmel Realty colleagues also placed a home along 17 Mile Drive across from Pebble's 15th hole in escrow with an asking price of $5.9M – a nice way to start the 4th quarter given there were zero sales in Pebble over $4M in the third quarter.

Carmel continued to chug along nicely.  We were again fortunate to close a sale on Bayview at $4.25M and place a great property on Camino Real in escrow with an asking price of $3.999M.  The strength in Carmel remains concentrated in the Golden Rectangle, with most demand in the $1.5-$2.5 bracket; that said, as mentioned in our quarterly update, significant demand has been seen in the $3-$4M bracket, as apparent repeat buyers seek well located, slightly larger homes and lots.

Quite a bit coming up in Carmel and Pebble:  For the car buffs, there's a major Porsche gathering this weekend; for the golfers, the Callaway tournament is headed to Pebble the week of November 14 – it's a fun tournament pairing PGA, LPGA, and Seniors playing together – easy to get close to the players without the crowds of the AT&T.

Mike

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October 7, 2011

The close of the third quarter here in Carmel and Pebble Beach has revealed a few very interesting market patterns; we've attached our Carmel and Pebble Beach market summaries and will share a few insights below.

At the outset, the theme is clearly an ascending Carmel market and a deep chill settling into the upper brackets of Pebble Beach.  Carmel's sold and pending sales numbers have already exceeded the annual numbers for years 2006-2010.  Of particular note is the strength in the $3-4M bracket, with 6 sales year to date; last quarter Carmel also saw 2 closed sales and two pending sales north of $4M.  Very healthy, by all standards.  Inventory levels in Carmel are generally quite balanced, with a high level (14) in the $3-4M bracket but, again, that bracket has also seen exceptional demand.  There's a building consensus that demand in Carmel has migrated toward slightly larger houses (2,500-3,000 sq. ft.), with 4 bedrooms, sitting on larger, well located lots (6,500-8,000 ft.)  Clearly, there are a number of move-up buyers in motion, those who bought the classic 1,600 sq. ft. cottage, liked the Carmel experience but ultimately decided they'd like something larger but want to remain in Carmel.  We're also sensing that the younger demographic from Silicon Valley has focused on Carmel, with it's easier to maintain smaller homes and lots and convenience to beach and town, over Pebble's larger homes and properties – this potential pattern is one we'll be closely watching in the future.

Pebble Beach has been quite a different story.  But for our off-market pending sale (asking price of $11M), there were zero closed sales in Pebble over $4M last quarter and there are none pending.  A striking contrast to the robust action in Carmel.  Some demand shift is clearly taking place – we'll see how the fourth quarter plays out and whether the emerging pattern signals a more profound trend.  Assuming even modest sales in Q4, Pebble is on track to beat 2009 and 2010 sales, extending the recovery trend, albeit sluggishly.  Inventory levels are troublesome:  The bottom $1-1.5M bracket has 25 properties available – this bracket is a dog fight with a number of foreclosures – there are some good buys being made at this level.  North of $4M there are 36 properties available, a 3 1/2 year supply by historical standards – there's no magic bullet here and this supply excess will put pressure on prices for some time.

Very interesting markets out there right now.  We have seen swings between Carmel and Pebble Beach during previous cycles but this one has been more pronounced – we'll continue to watch the markets closely and will update our observations on this blog.

Mike

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September 30, 2011

I've decided to again post the actual weekly stats  along with my comments – many commented that they liked that hard data in addition to my narrative.

Looking at the weekly stats, I see two principal themes:  Continuing steady sales (3 new sales in Carmel and 3 closed sales; 5 new sales and two closed sales in Pebble Beach) together with a significant number of price reductions (6 in Carmel and 11 in Pebble).  Tells me there is demand, at the right price, and the market is continuing to adjust to find those prices in each of our sectors.

Carmel continues to enjoy very healthy demand, with closed sales of $4.45, $3.475 and $1.65, all well-located properties).  As mentioned in an earlier posting, my evolving sense is that there is a demographic shift towards smaller homes and lots, easier to maintain, with convenient access to the beach and amenities of Carmel By The Sea.  This is a potential pattern we'll be continuing to monitor.

Pebble finally had a couple properties go into escrow above $3M, both well located in the Estates part of the Forest with good access to The Lodge and Beach Club.  As an aside, we also put an off-market property into escrow with an asking price of $11M.  Nice to see demand return to that level as well.

Mike

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September 16, 2011

Sorry to neglect our update last week. I've been traveling - was actually asked by a niece to officiate her wedding - an interesting role I've never performed. I'll let you know if the ceremony goes viral on YouTube and I segue to a new career:)

In any event, I thought I'd so something different this week and post the kind of data summary we review and analyze in preparing our regular market comments. Below you will find summaries of changes to the active listings in Carmel and Pebble Beach, as well as both new pending sales and closed sales in both markets.

Carmel - Active and Pending

Carmel - Sales

Pebble Beach - Active and Pending

Pebble Beach - Sales

This data should provide a more detailed snapshot of market activity, including the number of price reductions amongst active listings - which tells one dimension of the market story often left undiscussed.

As you can see, the Pebble Beach and Carmel markets enjoyed a couple of very solid weeks. Carmel remains strong, particularly in the prime Golden Rectangle area. I continue to sense a larger demographic demand shift toward Carmel's smaller homes, with ease of maintenance and walk-to-water convenience.

I'll be back with my regular weekly commentary next Friday. 

Mike

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September 2, 2011

Well, this week the market pendulum swung back to Pebble Beach.  After a couple months of stronger action in Carmel, Pebble saw 5 properties go into escrow and 5 properties close; Carmel had 4 properties go into escrow and one close.

Pebble Beach's new sales activity extended the pattern of lower end sales, with all 5 new sales between $637,000-$1,270,000; 4 of the 5 closed sales were also under $1.65, 3 under $1M; Pebble did have one property close escrow at $3.9M, after being on the market nearly two years.

Carmel's closed sale was a strongly located Golden Rectangle sale a block from the beach at $4.4 – worth noting that the seller paid $5.4 for that property previously, reflecting the approximate fall in values in the 30% range in the past 3 +/- years.  That said, the $3-4.5M sector in Carmel now is the hottest in the area, reflecting an interesting apparent evolving demographic pattern:  a strong market demand for larger, quality homes on oversized, prime locations – views/walk-to-water/town; demand is actually stronger within this price bracket than the historically strong $1.5-$2.5 bracket that had enjoyed very strong demand earlier in the year.  Not sure if there's a shift going on from larger homes and lots in Pebble at similar price-points to the larger (on Carmel's relative standard)  but, clearly, some market shift is emerging.  Stay tuned.

If you haven't heard, Tiger Woods will be hosting his charity tournament here in Pebble Beach the second week in October.  With lighter crowds than the AT&T and our best weather, it might be a fun time to head this way.

Enjoy the Labor Day holiday.

Mike

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Aug. 27, 2011

Last week’s flurry of activity experienced a seasonal cooling this week with only one property going into escrow, a property on the edge of Carmel’s Golden Rectangle offered at $1.3M that went into escrow 4 days after coming on the market.  The only closing was also in Carmel for a rare bank-owned property that closed at $1.2M in the Point area.  The only new listing in Carmel was a $1.6M fixer also in the Point area. 

Pebble Beach had no new escrows or closings and 5 new listings come to market ranging from $1.39M to $765K.  The combination of Concours fatigue, a new school year and end-of-summer activities makes this an annual, expected slow-down.  That said, showings have not cooled with many buyers using these last few days of summer to explore their local real estate options.  If history serves us, some of these showings should translate to additional transactions by the end of September to close out what looks like a healthy quarter.

If you have recovered from the Concours, you might want to check out the Jewish Food Festival at Congregation Beth Israel this Sunday, Aug. 28^th from 10:30AM to 4:00PM at 5716 Carmel Valley Road. This annual event is always a highlight of the summer with tons of delicious food and music.  Good excuse to abandon the fog of Carmel for a little sun 5 minutes down the road in Carmel Valley.

- Mike

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August 22, 2011

Just a tad late on the update this week;  Concours week is certainly hectic both socially and professionally with clients and friends converging on Pebble Beach and Carmel from all over the globe.  Anecdotally, this year felt busier than the past few and activity in our local real estate market seems to back that perception.  Five properties closed escrow this past week but, more importantly as a forward indicator, eight properties went into escrow.  Makes this the busiest week of the year, thus far.  Pebble Beach's activity was in the lower price range with 3 properties closing in the MPCC area at $2M, $615K and $610K and 5 MPCC listings going into escrow ranging from $895K-$550K.  Only two new listings came on the market in the MPCC area this week at $2.4M and $637K; the inventory in this area is steadily dropping and that is a decidedly positive trend.  The upper-tier had 5 new entries, not surprising as sellers take advantage of the Concours crowd.  A compound above the Lodge on Crespi came back on the market after a hiatus at $15.6M, a remodel-in-process came in at $9.9M and three others came on at $8.9M, $6.5M and $5.9M.

Carmel had two Golden Rectangle closings, both just off Ocean Ave. at $2.5M and $3.4M.  Three properties went into escrow in Carmel at $1.58M, $ 1.8M and $949K for a tear-down in the Point area close to the beach (multiple offers as soon as it came on the market, I understand).  Not surprising as a property just down the street came on the market at $3.7M clearly showing the upside potential.  Other new listings included another Carmel Point property at $3.2M, a Golden Rectangle fixer on San Antonio at $2.9M and a small "Zen Retreat" on San Carlos at $1.3M.

Hope there are no social events for a week or two…..

- Mike

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August 12, 2011

While the stock market gyrated and tumbled, the real estate markets in Carmel and Pebble Beach showed continued resiliency with 7 properties either closing or going into escrow.  At the high-end, an off-market deal above the Lodge went into escrow at $12.9M, another notch in the belt of the off-market property niche.  Nice to see some action in Pebble's upper tier again.  Pebble Beach also had a MPCC property close at $1.025M and 3 other Upper Forest and MPCC homes going into escrow at $845K, $667K and $484K for an REO still under construction.   There were 4 new listings at $4.125M, for a fixer/tear-down on Crespi, as well as 3 more MPCC properties coming on the market at $1.2M, $1.1M and $680K for a bank-owned fixer.

Lynn and I were very busy in Carmel, putting our new listing, an impeccable home on a double corner lot in the Golden Rectangle, into escrow at $3.9M about 12 hours before it actually came on the market and Lynn sold a classic Casanova home at $3.59M.   Four new properties appeared in Carmel at $3.8M, again on Casanova, a Monterey Colonial with ocean views at $3.7M, a Carmel Point  ocean view fixer at $2.6M and a Carmel cottage on Isabella at $949K.  Busy week.

Speaking of busy weeks....Monday is the start of Classic Car Week here in Carmel and Pebble Beach as well as Laguna Seca, Quail and pretty much every corner of the Monterey Peninsula.  Always tremendous fun so I hope to see you out and about.

- Mike

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Aug. 5, 2011

It may be the storm before the calm, but the last week's results were robust with three properties closing and six properties going into escrow.  Pebble Beach had an increase in inventory with 10 new listings ranging from a stunning $8.6M property close to the Lodge and another beauty on Riata at $5.9M to a short sale in the Country Club area for $550K.  In between, also in the Country Club area, were new offerings ranging from $2.2M to $845K.  The only closed escrow in Pebble Beach was a property on Cantera Court that we sold for $1.5M.

Carmel had less of a jump in inventory with 2 properties closing, a double-lot remodel north of Ocean at $3.69M and, at the other end of the spectrum, a short sale closing at $900K in the Carmel Point area.  New listings include a Scenic Rd. property at $5.4M and a San Antonio cottage at $3.8M. Two additional properties came on at $2.4M and $1.1M.

While several of the Concours events are sold out, such as the Quail, there are still many events that don’t require tickets, such as the Carmel Concours on Tuesday, August 16^th.  Really a fun way to jumpstart the week’s festivities.

- Mike

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July 29,2011

It's too early to predict stasis but there are encouraging signs returning to our target markets with only three new listings making their debut and three properties either closing or going into escrow this week.   Pebble Beach had one closed sale at $2.7M and saw another property go into escrow at $2.29M. It's interesting to note that both of these properties sold recently for 20-80% higher than their last go-round at the height of the market in 2004-2005.  Clearly, there were some improvements to both properties but, all things being equal, impressive results.  One new property entered the market on Viscaino, above the Lodge, at $4.49M.  The top of Pebble remains quiet.

The high-end of Carmel's market also showed some cooling with only one property going into escrow at $1.9M and one property in the Carmel Point area falling out of escrow at $4.69M –it's our understanding the sale cratered over an appraisal problem.  A new listing, also in the active Carmel Point area, came on at $2.7M.  

So all in all, the Pebble Beach and Carmel markets do appear to be finding a supply/demand balance this summer.  The exception seems to be the top of both markets with demand disappearing, after a strong showing in the first quarter.

Concerts in Carmel at the Carmel Plaza commence on August 5th from 5-7PM with a local favorite, the Dennis Murphy Band.  This is a free event and well attended some come early.  There is a featured winery or brewery with tastings offered at $15 with a few nibbles; first up - Scheid Vineyards.  A fun way to start the weekend.

- Mike

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July 23, 2011

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July 15, 2011

The balance sheet was weighted towards the sold column this week with 8 properties closing escrow or going into escrow in Pebble Beach and our target areas of Carmel while only 3 new properties came on the market.  Most of the action in Pebble was in the battered but busy MPCC area with a bank-owned property closing at $1.2M and another (not distressed) property closing at $1.1M. Two of the four new sales in this same area were distressed: an REO at $530K and a short sale at $799K.  The other new sale in the MPCC area had an asking of $1.9M and the last of the four new sales was just outside the MPCC area and went into escrow at $1.2M.  All 3 new offerings were in Pebble Beach but only one was in MPCC (at $740K). Encouraging to see that the distressed properties are working their way through the market. The other two  new  Pebble listings are in the estate area above the Lodge and are asking $7.8M and $1.7M. 

Carmel was not as active this week with only two properties moving.  A 1905 historic Craftsmen fixer in the Golden Rectangle closed escrow at $1.3M after going into escrow almost immediately and garnering close to full asking.  And a remodeled Carmel Classic in the Golden Rectangle on a large lot went into escrow at $3.59M fairly soon after entering the market.  Carmel continues this year's pattern of having more activity in the higher end than Pebble.

For all you dog lovers (isn't that all of us?), the Del Monte Kennel Club is showcasing the working pups with the Obedience and Rally Trials at Carmel Middle School this Saturday and Sunday, July 16 & 17 from 8AM-3PM.  It's always amazing to watch these guys in action!

- Mike

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July 8, 2011

In spite of the distractions of the holiday weekend, new escrows in our target areas kept pace with the previous week's results.  Two properties went into escrow in Pebble Beach; a beautiful villa above the Lodge with an asking price of $4.9M and, at the other end of the market, a bank-owned property went into escrow with an asking price of $699K.  The only closed escrow was another bank-owned property close to the Lodge on  Ondulado that was a bank sale at $2,335,000 two months ago and  closed off market again last week at $3,050,000.  One hopes that this successful flip may be a forward indicator of renewed life in this segment of the market.  Only one new listing came on the market at Pebble in the MPCC area at $950K.

Carmel had one property go into escrow in the Carmel Point area at $995 for a major fixer/scraper and only one new listing hit the market in Carmel, a Comstock cottage at $1.85M in the Golden Rectangle.

The First Tee golf tournament is being played this weekend at Pebble Beach and Old Del Monte in Monterey. The admission is free, the format is two amateurs, a professional, and a junior...great fun for all.  There is also a dressage horse show at the Pebble Beach Equestrian Center which has a number of very talented entrants;  admission is free here, as well.  Don't forget the Bach Festival July 16-30th; for information, call 831.624.1521.  A busy time on our Peninsula with fun and activities for all.

- Mike

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June 11, 2011

By far, the most interesting event this week was the quick sale of our new listing on Scenic Road in Carmel, a classic Carmel Cotswold-style property loaded with charm that the market responded to immediately as an attractive value at $5.95M.  Showings have also increased; although some June gloom has appeared, that hasn't seemed to dampen the spirits of buyers as they start to come forward, perhaps as a response to the severe heat hitting so many areas. Carmel had another Golden Rectangle Craftsman cottage go into escrow this week at $2.49M and a tear-down on Scenic closed escrow at $3.5.

The rest of the week's activity was in Pebble Beach with one property in the MPCC area closing escrow at $953K and three more going into escrow in this same area at $1.25M, $895K and $689K.  A property on Padre Lane also went into escrow at $3.95M while four new listings came to market in Pebble Beach at $4.25M, $2.395M, $1.9M, and $1.2M. 

Don't forget that the Carmel Bach Festival is coming up soon….July 16-30.  The concerts (45 total) at the Carmel Mission are especially noteworthy.  Call (831) 624-1521 for more information.; get your tickets soon as many concerts sell out well in advance.

- Mike

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June 3, 2011

Well, after a two week lull, what I had hoped was just our traditional lull before the Memorial Day kick-off to summer turned out to be just that:  Carmel saw two closed sales in the prized south of Ocean sector ( one at $1.975 and the other at $1.875, right in what has been the price sweet spot this year) and one of the lowest priced homes on Scenic (asking $3.995) went into escrow – solid week in Carmel.  Additionally, we just brought on a classic Carmel stone/rolled roof home, with guest house, located on Scenic Road at $5.950 – this one has all the character in the world and is a strong value for a Scenic property of this caliber.

In addition, Pebble Beach saw two properties go into escrow (asking prices of $3.095 and $860) and three properties come to market.  The inventory climb we didn't need but it was nice to see a resumption in sales activity.

Anecdotally, we also saw a pick-up in showings and interest in several of our listings: the home along the second hole of Pebble and the Butterfly House along the ocean in Carmel both enjoyed credible interest this week.  Encouraging to see interest returning at the top of the market as well.

It'll be interesting to track our markets in the next month.  We're getting increasing signals of resumed demand from Silicon Valley and, our number two demographic, Texas, is just about to swelter and begin their seasonal migration  our way.

Just found out about a one-time-only event for Porsche lovers: the Quail Lodge will be hosting the Porsche Race Car Classic on Oct. 16, 2011 which will feature Porsche's most significant race cars from 1950-1965, the so-called Silver Cars, from the most prestigious collections in the world. Tickets are $400; for more information, go to www.porscheracecarclassic.com.

- Mike

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- Mike

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May 20, 2011

The slow down  in the Carmel and Pebble Beach markets noted in last week's update extended through this past week; not atypical for this season of graduations and the like – the more interesting barometer will be the week or two following Memorial Day, which traditionally ushers in an increased level of showings and sales.

Pebble Beach had two sales, one a value-buy-fixer in the Estates area of Pebble, the other a $599,000 house in the upper part of the Forest – this price was unheard of a couple years ago and, while not in a prime area, still signals extreme softness in the entry-level markets.  Pebble Beach did see the listing of a $30M property this week – actually, two vacant parcels along the 12th hole of Pebble (listed at $14 and $16M) - rare commodities which will be interesting to track the market reaction and demand.

In Carmel one property went into escrow (a smaller south of Ocean fixer listed at $1.495) and two properties came to market – a larger than normal 5 bedroom house on Monte Verde south of Ocean at $5.75M and we brought a fantastic ocean view sophisticated beach house on Bayview to market at $4.795M.

Ferrari fans will be getting their fill at the Mazda Raceway Laguna Seca season opener, the Ferrari Racing days, May 20 - May 22.  This event will star some of the rarest and most sought-after models ever constructed by the Italian automaker.  For more information, go to www.mazdaraceway.com.

- Mile

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May 13, 2011

The only closed escrow this week in our target areas of PebbleBeach and Carmel was a Townhouse by the Lodge in Pebble Beach that I sold for$1.8M.  However, there were triple the number of new escrows this week showing that buyers are experiencing some renewed vigor.  Pebble Beach had two new sales at $995K and $945K both located in the MPCC area.  Three new properties came on the market at $1.049M, $854K and $748K.  The $854K property is an REO fixer on the 16th Fairway of Spyglass Hill Golf Course that entered the market at $1.78M about 18 months ago.  It did go into escrow once at $1.4 after having a price reduction but did not close at that price.  At $854K, this is clearly a fire sale price and may impact the values of the other properties on this street, at least temporarily.

Carmel also had one new sale, this one a short sale on Santa Lucia at $1.9M.  The house had been on and off the market for over 6 years and had had 8 price reductions from a starting price of $4.9M.  Yet another example of the benefit of having a realistic list price at the outset. The Carmel Point area had three new offerings this week at $4.5M, $4.295M and $2.9M.  This last property appears to be a flip since it was purchased about 10 months ago at $1.2M and has been recently remodeled.   Although the signs are pointing to a market upswing,  this seller apparently has nerves of steel to be attempting a flip at this time. One other property came on the market, close to town in Carmel at $1.495M located directly across from the Sunset Center.

Speaking of the Sunset Center,  one of the largest events that the Sunset Center has ever seen is happening this weekend, Visions 2011, a major flower show with over 300 entrants in flower arrangement, horticulture and photography, as well as educational and conservation exhibits.  Sponsored by the Garden Club of America and 5 Bay area Garden Clubs, many exhibits are free; for more information, call (831) 620-2048 or go to www.sunsetcenter.org. 

- Mike

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May 6, 2011

Although Pebble Beach and Carmel were both hives of activity this past week, that activity was centered around a myriad of local events rather than in real estate.  Only one property went into escrow, in Carmel, close to town on Dolores at $1.9M. One property closed escrow, in the Point area at $2.5M after lingering on the market for one and a half years.  Two new listings came on the market in our target areas of Carmel, the Golden Rectangle and Carmel Point.  The first, a rare, large street to street property on San Antonio overlooking Scenic, came on the market at $7.2M and the second, a remodel in the Point area at $1.5M.

The only activity in Pebble Beach involved new listings, four to be exact with one of particular interest.  Listed at $2.795M and located on 17 Mile Drive directly across from the Lone Cypress, this property should appeal to buyers looking for views of an iconic symbol across the street.  The house itself would probably be considered by most to be a scraper; this one is priced at lot value.  Two of the other new listings are in the Estate area above the Lodge, offered at $1.65M and $1.48M and the last is in the MPCC area at $849K.

This weekend's House & Garden Tour, hosted by the Carmel Heritage Society, should interest those of you who are intrigued by Carmel's history and beautiful properties.  Call 831-624-4447 for more information.

 - Mike