Introduction

Mike Canning & Lynn Knoop have joined forces with the goal of continuing to offer the highest level of professionalism and service to a limited number of buyers and sellers of exceptional Carmel and Pebble Beach properties. With a combined 40 years of experience working the top of these markets, Mike & Lynn know the market - both the openly listed and discreetly available inventory.

A perennial leader in sales on the Monterey Peninsula for decades, Mike was just recognized as Sothebys International Realty's #1 agent for the 11th consecutive year; re-joining old friends and colleagues at Carmel Realty, he's excited to be back with the premier locally owned brokerage firm.

Lynn Knoop, a native of San Francisco and the Monterey Peninsula, has been one of the top selling agents in Carmel and Pebble Beach for the past 15 years. Known for her gracious style and unwavering client commitment, Lynn shares Mike's view that it's better to limit quantity to assure quality - the vision and goal is to be the best.

Nancy Canning, who's handled print marketing for Mike's business for the past 25 years, continues to play an active marketing and quality control role. She deserves an award for putting up with Mike for 37 years of marriage.

Current Market Comments

January 13, 2012

First weekly recap following our year-end posting last week.  Bucking last year's trend, Pebble looks to be coming back with some strength, surpassing Carmel:  5 properties closed last week, four between $2.0-$3.5; a solid start to the year.  Additionally, Pebble Beach saw 5 properties also go pending, in this case, all under $1M, extending that pattern of vigorous demand and activity at those new entry price points in Pebble.  Value prices and extraordinary low interest rates seem to be doing the trick in that sector.

Carmel had no closed sales last week but saw 6 properties go 'contingent', a pretty incredible start to what is historically a fairly slow time.  Another very positive sign in our marketplaces.  Four of Carmel's new sales were below $1.395, paralleling Pebble's demand at the lower price points; but, Carmel also finally saw a property north of $8M go into escrow, a beautifully restored 5,000 sq. ft. home on a 12,000 sq. ft. lot along Scenic – great house and a great buy – that said, it was great to start the year off with a show of demand at this price point after being blanked in 2011.

Biggest news on the local activity front was Tiger Woods announcement last week that he'll be playing in this year's AT&T tournament, the first time he's played in the tournament since 2002.  Ticket sales saw an immediate surge in sales – should be fun.

Mike & Lynn

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January 6, 2012

As always, it's hard to believe another year has come and gone.  An eventful year in the world and a few interesting observations in our Carmel and Pebble Beach marketplaces as well.  We've attached our year-end market summaries and will share a few salient comments below:

Pebble Beach had a below average year, starting out fairly strong, then softening in the middle but, posting a strong 4th quarter; the higher pending sales number may bode well for the first quarter of 2012.

- There were 2 sales in Pebble Beach above $10M this year, the highest being $11.25M; we were honored to have handled 1 of those top sales.

- A fairly new phenomenon in Pebble was the activity below $1M dollars.  It wasn't that long ago when the lowest prices in Pebble were $1M; this year, 45 properties traded below $1M.  Some real bargains were to be had.             

- We will close 40 deals this year (10 year average of 62); there are 86 properties on the market – clearly, an imbalanced market, particularly in a couple of price points:  worst of the bunch is the $4-8M sector, with 18 properties on the market and only 6 sales this yea

- No matter how it's diced and sliced, the excess supply is going to pose some drag on the Pebble market in 2012.  We would anticipate further discounting as sellers set pricing to entice buyers – the market remains as price sensitive as I've seen in the past 25 years.

Carmel was clearly the bright spot in the marketplace in 2011, enjoying an above average year in virtually all price points:

- Carmel had the highest number of sales since 2005 with the prized Golden Rectangle and Carmel Point areas enjoyed robust demand.

- We had a bit of an odd phenomenon develop this year with demand higher between $3-4M than from $2.5-3.0;  It appeared there was some move-up buying going on, with buyers looking for larger homes on larger lots and willing to pay more for it.

- The $4-8M sector did very well this year with 6 closed sales, after only 2 in 2010; however, the market above 8 was blanked (we did handle the sale of a $10.4 sale on Ribera Road but do not include that area in this data) - there are only 5 properties listed above 8 but no takers.

- Interesting to note that, unlike Pebble, Carmel's 4th quarter pending sales slowed to only 4 – a bit puzzling given the market's tilt toward Carmel throughout the balance of the year.

- Overall, Carmel's inventory levels are much more balanced than Pebble's, with 52 properties on the market and 50 sales this year.  Inventory levels are light-to-average below $3M but are building in the $3-4 sector and the $4-8 range.

All in all, a very solid year in Carmel and decent 4th quarter pending signals in the Pebble Beach market; that said, there are clearly pockets of imbalance that will warrant scrutiny as we move into 2012.

Happy New Year to all.

Mike & Lynn

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December 16, 2011

Well, the annual holiday quiet has begun to settle into our local Carmel and Pebble Beach markets.  Carmel saw only one new sale, an unusual REO sale of a small tear-down in the Golden Rectangle (asking price of $765,000) - good value and drew quick demand.  Pebble Beach continued it's late year charge trying to catch up to Carmel.  We closed the sale of a tear down at $4.5M on one of Pebble's best ocean view sites, offering spectacular views of Carmel Beach, Bay and Point Lobos and there was one other closed sale of a small home in the upper Forest.  There are also two new sales in Pebble, both in the MPCC area and both under $1.5M; the pricing correction seen all year in Pebble in the MPCC area has definitely triggered demand and sales – with the historically low long term cost of capital, which affects this price sector disproportionately, I expect this will continue into 2012 as long as interest rates remain at these levels.  Pebble Beach also saw 7 price reductions as sellers continue to get prices aligned with demand, another story I anticipate being repeated in 2012.  Except perhaps at the very top of our markets, the market remains extremely price sensitive – buyers still do not sense urgency and prices set to trigger motivation and action are more critical than I've seen in my 25 years working these markets.

We genuinely wish you the best of this holiday time of year and every success and happiness in 2012.  We'll be taking a rest next week from the blog posting but will have our year-end recap for you the following week.  

Enjoy the holiday.

Mike & Lynn

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December 11, 2011

Sorry for the delay – having too much fun I guess:

December 2, 2011

The seasonal slow-down has begun to take hold in Carmel, while the bottom of the Pebble Beach market continues to chug along robustly.  Carmel saw one new sale last week, a well-priced (asking $1.495M) bit of a fixer on Carmel Point – the Point has exhibited strong demand all year – a perennial favorite of Carmel buyers; although, inventory has piled up on Bayview, with 6 properties currently listed for sale there – worth keeping an eye on that momentary supply imbalance.

The 3 sales last week in Pebble were all under $1M (a condo at $449, and two houses at $699 and $890).  As mentioned previously, this under $1M sector virtually didn't exist 4 years ago and has  contained a disproportionate % of distressed sales; on a positive note, this sector has definitely responded to the price discounting that has gone on with very active demand – price clearly works in this range.  My crystal ball is forecasting another year or so in this buying window at this range with some genuine value opportunities and then the window closing and the entry level rising  back up towards the $1M threshold.

Christmas is on the horizon with the Carmel Holiday Tree lighting tonight – if you're in town, it's a fun and very pretty event.

-Mike & Lynn

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November 25, 2011

Warm holiday wishes to all.  Lynn, Amanda and I have a lot to give thanks for, including the support of wonderful clients and friends.

A bit of symmetry in the Carmel and Pebble Beach markets last week with two new listings and two new sales in each market.  Carmel continues to display deep strength with another sale in the prime Golden Rectangle ($2.295M) as well as another on Carmel Point ($1.895M) - the market continues to demonstrate great favor with these two locations - for good reason - both offering easy access to the beach and the Golden Rectangle offering a stroll to town.  The ease of maintenance of the smaller lots and homes appears to be getting real traction with the Carmel demographic.

Pebble Beach saw a $8.6M listing go into escrow last week - a high quality larger home with guest house located close to The Lodge. Nice to see demand at this price point as it's been pretty soft most of the year.

Christmas activities starting to surface on the local schedules with The Sunset Center Smuin Ballet Holiday Program, the Pacific Repertory Theater's presentation of 'Every Christmas Story Ever Told'and the Carmel Holiday tree lighting just some of the activities coming up next month.

Again, hope the holiday is treating you well.  Off to Carmel Beach with our daughter and her two King Charles Spaniels along with our two Goldens - does a Dad's heart good:)

And, if you're out and about tomorrow (Saturday), do feel free to stop by to view the Butterfly House on the ocean in Carmel - I'll be there from 3-6:00 and you're welcome to stop in and see this one-of-a-kind property.

-Mike

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November 18, 2011

Well, Thanksgiving is upon us and we wish you all well and a warm holiday week with family and friends next week. 

As to the Carmel and Pebble Beach real estate markets, perhaps somewhat surprisingly, we did see a four new sales last week, as well as 5 closed sales.  The new sales activity was in Pebble, extending the recent counter-trend which had been benefitting Carmel all year; Carmel Realty handled three of the four sales (one with an ask of $2.2,  another at $3.95 and another I put in escrow last night at $4.95 – the final new sale was another value sale at the lower end of the market at $895,000).  Pebble Beach had 3 closed sales, all at the bottom below $928,000 – the encouraging thing at that sector is that demand has been vibrant and is beginning to get ahead of the supply.

Carmel was quiet with new sales but had two more solid sales in the prime Golden Rectangle (at $2.125M and @2.0M) extending what has been an extraordinary display of demand all year long; as mentioned, my instincts tell me there may be more afoot with this expression of interest in smaller houses and lots with convenience, lesser maintenance, etc., and we'll be continuing to track that apparent pattern/trend going into 2012.

Couple of additional items:

                -  If you'll be in town next Saturday we'd like to invite you to stop by and view Carmel's famed Butterfly House. I'll be there from 3-6:00 PM on Saturday, November 26 and you're welcome to bring friends and family.  It is a one-of-a-kind property and house and has undergone a phenomenal renovation.  Fun to see.

                -  In an effort to improve our reach in the international markets we've now posted a brochure on the Butterfly House in both Chinese and Russian on the web site and will be expanding the international outreach on the web in the next few weeks.  We've also retained an interpreter to assist with communications and showings – we'll keep you posted on interest on that front.

                - The biggest event in town this weekend is the Callaway tournament in Pebble Beach. It's a unique tournament with players from the 4 tours all playing together.  It's free and you there are no ropes so you can get close to the players – fun time and very casual.

Again, have a wonderful holiday with family and friends.

Mike & Lynn

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November 11, 2011

As forecasted, the seasonal doldrums appear to have set in.  Only 1 sale in all of Pebble Beach and the prime areas in Carmel last week, a small condo in the Ocean Pines project in Pebble.  My sense is that there is some gas left in the market's tank yet this year and that we will see a number of additional sales in Carmel and Pebble Beach but the trend line will likely be slower for the balance of the year.

There were 3 closed sales in Carmel last week, ranging from our sale of one of my favorite Carmel listings this year, the beautifully designed home at the corner of Camino Real and 13th, at $3.75, and two other sales of well located (one in the Golden Rectangle and one on Carmel Point) both in the $1.5+ range.  Pebble had one closed sale, in that lower price range below $1M (at $700,000) that has seen so much distress activity this year – a lot of good buys being made at these lower price points in Pebble now.

Of perhaps as much interest and relevance, Pebble saw 8 price reductions and only one new listing.  We don't need any more inventory right now and I suspect the price reductions will continue into next year as more sellers come to grips with the reality of a market that has declined 30% in the past several years.

Couple of fun events in town this Veteran's Day weekend:  The Monterey County Wine Country's Best of the Blue is being held tomorrow at the Del Monte Jet Center; David Sedaris is at the Sunset Center and the Morgenstern Piano Trio is in town.

We'd like to end with a brief but sincere note of thanks to all the troops and Veterans out there – your service and sacrifice are deeply appreciated.

-Mike & Lynn

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November 4, 2011

While the holidays are fast approaching the Carmel and Pebble Beach markets continue to show reasonable, although slowing, activity levels.  

Pebble Beach had two properties go into escrow, one with an asking price of $3.95M and one with an ask of $699,000.  The $3.95M house was a traditional, somewhat dated home with ocean views along Padre Lane, one of Pebble's favored locations – priced under $4M with views clearly positioned it as a value, which has also clearly been the driver for sales this year.  The other Pebble story relates to the lower-priced sale.  It wasn't very long ago that the lowest priced property in Pebble was in the $1M range.  At this time there are 46 properties in Pebble priced under $1M, an astonishing number.  This sector of the market has been hammered, falling 30-40%, certainly disproportionately feeling the effects of foreclosures and distress sales.  From the buyer's perspective, the convergence of these prices and the low cost of long term capital presents an historic buying opportunity.  There were 6 new listings in Pebble and two properties formerly on the market came back – adding 8 and selling two clearly going the wrong way.

Carmel saw 3 new sales (ranging from 995,000-$2.795)  and one closed sale ($1.0M); the new sales were all located in the prized south of Ocean Ave location, extending the pattern of truly amazing, robust demand in the best Carmel locations.  The sale was an interesting one on Carmel Point, another highly favored location:  small fixer on Valley View hit the market at $990,000 and immediately sold and closed at $1M.  There's a lot to like about Carmel Point and this provides new support for essentially lot value there.  Carmel also saw a more balanced 3 new listings come to market (prices ranging from $1.289-$2.3M), all three in the Golden Rectangle – I expect these to find favor in the near term as well.  It's pretty clear that, from a liquidity perspective, Carmel is our most liquid area. Demand and velocity are healthy and, as mentioned a few times recently, may be signaling a more profound demographic shift/pattern.

For the foodies, the Big Sur Food and Wine Festival is this weekend.  Should present a pretty unique combination of fabulous food and setting.  It's also been interesting to observe our area expanding it's traditional base of golf, car, and music events with the ever-increasing number of food and wine events – a great addition to local activities

-Mike & Lynn